Monday, January 13, 2014

Next Years Weather to 99% Confidence

What Catastrophe? | The Weekly Standard:

Good article that covers a brilliant and courageous actual scientist that raises the ire of the axis of Government - Climate Alarmist Industry (like Gore) - Government funded Academia.

Harvard scientist with great credentials, not cowed by the abuse and venom of the Warmist cabal.
"Because CO2 is invisible and the climate is so complex (your local weatherman doesn’t know for sure whether it will rain tomorrow, let alone conditions in 2100), expertise is particularly important. Lindzen sees a danger here. “I think the example, the paradigm of this, was medical practice.” He says that in the past, “one went to a physician because something hurt or bothered you, and you tended to judge him or her according to whether you felt better. That may not always have been accurate, but at least it had some operational content. .  .  . [Now, you] go to an annual checkup, get a blood test. And the physician tells you if you’re better or not and it’s out of your hands.” Because climate change is invisible, only the experts can tell us whether the planet is sick or not. And because of the way funds are granted, they have an incentive to say that the Earth belongs in intensive care."
For all the sophistication of some of the math and equipment involved, science is common sense. You make a hypothesis and you TEST IT, many times over many years and it MUST prove true again and again. If it does not, then it is FALSE, and must be modified. Karl Popper established that anything that is "scientific" is FALSIFIABLE! If it is "settled", then it IS NOT science, because actually science gains it power because it is ALWAYS ready to be shown to be in error!

Statists and other despots HATE common sense because it OFTEN shows that "the emperor has no clothes". Since any human majesty is ALWAYS imagined only, those that wish to be king have a vested interest in forcing to masses to see them as infallible and to be afraid to speak out against them.

As the title and the quote points out, while it is often true that one can see in RETROSPECT something very large that has happened over 100's or thousands of years -- like climate, geologic phenomenon, etc, it is entirely different to PREDICT those kinds of events in the future. We know that climate changes, meteors impact, volcanoes erupt, and earthquakes occur, but to PREDICT such happenings is completely different.

When an "expert" tells you that they can predict something 100 years in the future, they had better be VERY good at predicting a related event tomorrow!

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