Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Why I Was Wrong

James K. Glassman: Why I Was Wrong About 'Dow 36,000' - WSJ.com:

Very good column with a very good title. We ALL need to do this kind of analysis at LEAST a couple times a year, ideally more.

I realize that in writing a blog, the easiest thing to do is criticize what others have written or said, so that is mostly what I do -- it is easy and fun, and I write this blog for fun!

But blogging wasn't my life and still isn't much of it, so ...

I've been wrong LOTS of times ... some easy ones that come to mind:
  1. Voting for Jimmy Carter and being a Democrat ... I'd been wrong for 21 years and it was a big change to vote for Reagan in '80! (but a good one) 
  2. Dabbling in Atheism -- I went through the whole questioning thing. Had it not bee for the death of my friend Annette, I'm not sure if I would have ever found my way back to the road to Truth and would likely have left this vale of tears long ago bound for a much worse place. 
  3. Some relationships with women that we won't go into! 
  4. Thinking that pre-compiled Java would out run Just In Time (JIT) translation ... lots of resources spent, lots of disappointment. 
  5. Voting for Perot after HW broke his "No New Taxes" pledge ... giving us Slick Willie and destroying a good number of extra fibers of the already frayed American moral fibre. I learned that politics is "the lesser of two weevils",  and will not forget that again. 
  6. HUNDREDS of bad investment decisions ... failing to sell Juno at $80 something a share after I paid $2 a share for it because "I didn't want the tax bill", selling Apple at $150 and watching it go to $800 ... this list is SO long it could exceed War and Peace! 
  7. Becoming WAY too trapped into IBM for WAY too long due to "pension" ... I'm quite sure that in < 5 years we will have enough inflation to make that pension worthless to REALLY show me that foolishness, but see #8.
  8. Fairly consistently underestimating the resilience of the US economy ... I thought Slick Willie would kill it faster, and BO as well. The original model was pretty damned good, and "big MO" takes awhile to slow down ... so back to the linked article. 
Now that is FAR from a definitive list. The article is from 2011, but some of the quotes are right.
The first major change is that the relative economic standing of the U.S. is declining. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that U.S. growth will average a little more than 2% over the next 70 years, compared to about 3.5% during the second half of the 20th century. This is a stunning decline. 
The reasons? One is a demographic imbalance, with too few workers supporting too many retirees and other non-workers. Another is a growing preference for European-style security. Still others include inefficient investment in human capital, especially K-12 education, and an enormous buildup of debt partly meant to prevent financial catastrophe in 2008-09. Meanwhile, developing nations like China, India and Brazil are growing far 
As I often point out in this blog, the decline of America is REAL, the slow market growth is just one proof. The sad thing is that unlike our inevitable aging and decline, the US COULD still be vibrant and moving to a brighter future ... lower tax rates, more encouragement for work, less focus on "safety net", etc. BUT, we MUST recognize it is happening and TAKE ACTION! 

I'd argue with him that more investment in the current union / democrat party propaganda axis that calls itself "education" in the US is counterproductive ... charter schools, private schools, internet assisted home schooling, more accessible "boarding / prep / military schools" and other true education innovation that I can't even envision could provide the true base for the US to leap-frog the Chinese, Indians, etc ... but the NEA is ONLY going to go on "seniority based increasing 30 year and out to cushy retirement, 25 students in a box with one teacher, and big donations to The Party (TP) to keep the gravy train (for the teachers) rolling" as what to "invest" in. 

Anyway, being wrong is one of the best ways to learn. Admitting it is a way to share that a bit with others ... and in a competitive capitalist nation like we used to be, lots of mistakes tends to drive exciting levels of wealth both individually and collectively. 

... or we can just continue our decline! 

'via Blog this'

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