Monday, June 30, 2014

Science Surprise! Disruption?

Today’s Climate Embarrassment [With Comments and Video By John] | Power Line:

I predict the 2nd rebranding of "Global Warming", now from "Climate Change" to "Climate Disruption" is going to get a lot more prevalent. Let's watch the relatively near future to see how well my prediction does.

Here are some predictions that a group of august scientists was able to make last year after a five year study!
A five-year study presented in April 2013 concluding that water levels in the lakes were likely to drop even further, in part because of  the lack of precipitation in recent years brought on by climate change
As the predicted warming has stopped for the last 20 years, the climate industry was forced to re-brand from "Warming" to "Change" -- so when areas that formerly had a certain amount of rain had less, well that was PROOF of Climate Change no matter what the temp did. So the dropping of the Great Lakes levels was seized upon as a particularly useful datum for presentation to the slower brained masses that were not completely convinced of the urgency of "warming" by Al Gore jetting about and making a couple 100 million dollars.
But after reaching historic lows in 2013, water levels in the Great Lakes are now abruptly on the rise, a development that has startled scientists and thrilled just about everybody with a stake in the waterfront, including owners of beach houses, retailers in tourist areas and dockmasters who run marinas on the lakeshore.
Lakes Michigan, Huron and Superior are at least a foot higher than they were a year ago, and are expected to rise three more inches over the next month. Lake Ontario and Lake Erie are seven to nine inches higher than a year ago.
As PL remarks, perhaps it is not the scientists that were "startled", but rather the NYTs, but for the rationally oriented, the fact of a five year study resulting in predictions that were invalidated in a single year gives a very strong indicator that the predictive abilities of the "science" used in the 5 year study is shall we say "severely limited".

Yogi Berra was famously quoted as "Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future". He seems to be far wiser than modern "scientists" or "elite journalists". If your "science" fails to make correct predictions, it is WRONG, as Feynman made so clear:
If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement, is the key to science. It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, It doesn’t make any difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.”

It doesn't make any difference if you are a former or current Vice President or President of the US. It doesn't matter how much money has been invested in your "experiment/prediction". It doesn't even matter what percentage of some population -- educated, insightful or otherwise were "polled" and agreed with you. 

Science is about correct predictions. It can be "settled" that it is wrong, it can NEVER be "settled" that it is right, since the next test could falsify the theory, and it is adherence to that rule which defines science relative to politics, religion, philosophy, art, etc. 
'via Blog this'

No comments:

Post a Comment